Our Top 12 Fantasy Football Picks for 2024: Methodology and Analysis
What's up MoneyLeaguers. With the peak of draft season fast approaching I've put together my top 12 picks for the 2024 season. This list isn't just a gut feeling—it's the result of a meticulous analysis that blends expert rankings, ADP trends, injury risk assessments, and Strength of Schedule (SoS). Here’s how I arrived at these rankings and why these players should be on your radar.
The Methodology Used
1. Expert Consensus (45% Weight):
- Why It Matters: Expert rankings offer a broad perspective from seasoned analysts who have dissected each player's potential. These rankings form the backbone of our list, as they reflect a deep understanding of player performance, team dynamics, and upcoming opportunities.
- How It’s Weighted: Given the importance of expert opinion, this factor carries the most weight in our final score, at 45%.
2. ADP Trends (25% Weight):
- Why It Matters: Average Draft Position (ADP) tells us where players are actually being selected in real drafts. This provides insight into the current market sentiment and helps us identify potential sleepers or overvalued players.
- How It’s Weighted: ADP trends are important but secondary to expert consensus, so they carry a 25% weight in the final score.
3. Injury Risk Assessment (20% Weight):
- Why It Matters: Injuries can derail even the most promising seasons. By evaluating each player's injury history and current health status, we can better predict their availability throughout the season.
- How It’s Weighted: While crucial, injury risk is inherently uncertain, so it’s weighted at 20%.
4. Strength of Schedule (SoS) (10% Weight):
- Why It Matters: The difficulty of a player's schedule can significantly impact their performance, especially during the fantasy playoffs. A favorable schedule can elevate a player’s value, while a difficult one can suppress it.
- How It’s Weighted: SoS is given a 10% weight in the final analysis. While it’s an important factor, I’ve assigned it a lower weight due to the inherent variability and the unpredictable nature of schedule strength throughout the season.
The Top 12 Picks
Here’s the list, ranked from 1 to 12, with a brief summary for each:
- Christian McCaffrey (SF)
Despite a higher injury risk, McCaffrey's consistency and explosive potential keep him at the top. His role in San Francisco’s offense guarantees high-volume touches and scoring opportunities. Lets not forget the man was red hot with a 17-game td streak that ended last year. - CeeDee Lamb (DAL)
Show me the money Jerry! Lamb just got paid big. He is fully set up to be a dominant force in Dallas and will likely show he was worth every penny. With a strong ADP and manageable injury concerns. His favorable schedule only adds to his appeal. - Tyreek Hill (MIA)
Cheetah remains a force to be reckoned with. Anchoring the Dolphins' explosive offense, Hill's unmatched speed and big-play potential make him a top-tier pick. While he faces a slightly tougher schedule and carries a moderate injury risk, his upside is undeniable. - Ja'Marr Chase (CIN)
Chase is poised for another big year with Cincinnati, with a decent schedule and low injury risk making him a reliable WR1 option. However, we'll need to monitor his contract talks, should it turn into an extended holdout this should be reconsidered. - Justin Jefferson (MIN)
Jetta's favorable schedule and consistent production place him high on the list, though injury concerns and a question mark at the QB position in Minnesota have him slightly overshadowed by the other elite receivers. - Breece Hall (NYJ)
Hall’s potential is undeniable, especially after coming close to breaking 1,000 yards last season. With a healthy Aaron Rodgers leading the offense, Hall could see more opportunities to surpass that milestone, as defenses will have to respect the passing game, potentially opening up more running lanes. - Bijan Robinson (ATL)
Bijan delivered an impressive rookie season and looks poised for another strong sophomore campaign. While some might argue he deserves to be drafted even higher, I’m comfortable with him at 7, where he offers excellent value with plenty of upside. - Amon-Ra St. Brown (DET)
A rising star in Detroit, St. Brown has a great schedule and low injury risk. He is coming off a stellar season with 119 receptions for 1,515 receiving yards. He is a reliable WR1 that anyone would be happy to have on their team. - A.J. Brown (PHI)
Brown’s high ceiling is balanced due to a moderate injury risk and a tougher schedule. He’s still a solid WR1, but with some caution. - Garrett Wilson (NYJ)
Wilson’s third season is full of potential, with a good schedule, low injury risk, and a healthy veteran QB. He’s a strong WR2 with lots of upside. - Saquon Barkley (PHI)
Barkley remains a high-risk, high-reward player. A favorable schedule and elite talent keep him in the top 12, but his injury history demands caution. - Puka Nacua (LAR)
Many are fading Puka, skeptical that he can replicate the magic from last season. Don’t be fooled—this guy is the real deal. Nacua is poised to prove that last year was no fluke. He’s a bona fide WR2 with significant upside, and with Kupp in the lineup, his potential only increases.
Final Thoughts
This top 12 list combines the best of expert opinions, real-world draft behavior, and essential risk factors to help you make informed decisions on draft day. Remember, fantasy football is as much about managing risks as it is about identifying opportunities. Use this list as a guide, but always be ready to adapt as new information becomes available.
Best of luck with your drafts!
Cheers
Acknowledgments:
This analysis was made possible by the valuable data provided by FantasyPros for expert rankings and Strength of Schedule, and by Sleeper for Average Draft Position (ADP) data. Their insights are integral to the fantasy football community and greatly contributed to the accuracy of this post.